Is Moore's Law Finally Dead?

End of Moore’s law

The end of Moore's Law is an inevitable reality that the semiconductor industry will eventually face. Moore's Law, which states that the number of transistors on a chip doubles every two years, has been a driving force in the rapid advancement of technology. However, as we approach the physical limits of miniaturization, it becomes clear that this trend cannot continue indefinitely. The fundamental obstacles identified by Moore himself, the speed of light and the finite size of atoms, will inevitably create a bottleneck for further progress.

Companies working on miniaturization

2012: 19 companies

2023: 4 companies

In the  past, each new chip tech wave has required roughly 10 to 20 billion dollars per factory. For major manufacturers like TSMC and Global Foundries, investing that much money has been tough.  For smaller companies, it’s been impossible. This is why fewer and fewer companies are left to  push forward with the miniaturization game. Back in 2001, 19 companies were manufacturing chips  with cutting-edge transistors. Fast forward to   today, and we’ve only got four left standing:  GlobalFoundries, Intel, Samsung, and TSMC.Those other 15 companies? They’ve made a strategic  shift to churn out older, so-called “legacy”   chips, that are still widely used but can be  produced more cost-effectively.

Hardware Timeline

List of semiconductor scale examples

28 nm – 2010

22 nm – 2012

14 nm – 2014

10 nm – 2016

7 nm – 2018

5 nm – 2020

3 nm – 2022

Future

2 nm ~ 2025